Global combined land and ocean surface temperature anomalies relative to the average from 1986 to 2005. (IPCC 2014)
Annually and globally averaged sea level change relative to the average from 1986 to 2005. (Source: IPCC Synthesis Report 2014)
Current CO2 equiv. concentrations $\approx$450 ppm
NOAA: "a sea level rise of 2 feet would more than triple the frequency of coastal flooding across the Northeast, without any change in storms."
Emissions path under to 2030 under COP21 Commitments
Source: IEA WEO Special Report 2015
Reduce / revers rate of deforestation
Change industrial production processes (example: cement production)
Switch as much as we can to electric power
Decarbonize electricity production
Increase energy efficiency of durables (ACs, water heaters, etc)
Bad news: Non-hyro renewables less than 5% of global consumption
This means that the impact on climate is independent of where emissions occurs
Implication: Cooperation is essential
Free rider problem
"Solving climate change is a like marathon, not a sprint"
But costs occur earlier, with certainty
Suggests powerful temptation to wait
What happens if we do?
Climate sensitivity parameter = average surface warming resulting from a doubling of CO2, in equilibrium
CO2 removal (direct air capture, ocean fertilization, etc.)
Solar radiation management
great New Yorker article
New resilient infrastructure